Recent U.S. rejection of Iran's counterproposal on May 11, combined with ongoing disputes over the length of any uranium enrichment moratorium and the fate of Tehran's existing highly enriched stockpile, has solidified trader expectations against a nuclear deal by May 31. President Trump has signaled readiness for renewed military pressure if core demands on verifiable limits and sanctions relief are not met, while indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad remain stalled on these points amid active naval tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. With only two weeks remaining, the compressed timeline and absence of a framework agreement incorporating permanent curbs have reinforced the 92% implied probability for no resolution. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough remains possible but would require rapid concessions from Tehran on inspection access and enrichment scope that have not materialized in recent exchanges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$666,899 Обс.
$666,899 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$666,899 Обс.
$666,899 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S. rejection of Iran's counterproposal on May 11, combined with ongoing disputes over the length of any uranium enrichment moratorium and the fate of Tehran's existing highly enriched stockpile, has solidified trader expectations against a nuclear deal by May 31. President Trump has signaled readiness for renewed military pressure if core demands on verifiable limits and sanctions relief are not met, while indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad remain stalled on these points amid active naval tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. With only two weeks remaining, the compressed timeline and absence of a framework agreement incorporating permanent curbs have reinforced the 92% implied probability for no resolution. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough remains possible but would require rapid concessions from Tehran on inspection access and enrichment scope that have not materialized in recent exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$666,899Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S. rejection of Iran's counterproposal on May 11, combined with ongoing disputes over the length of any uranium enrichment moratorium and the fate of Tehran's existing highly enriched stockpile, has solidified trader expectations against a nuclear deal by May 31. President Trump has signaled readiness for renewed military pressure if core demands on verifiable limits and sanctions relief are not met, while indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad remain stalled on these points amid active naval tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. With only two weeks remaining, the compressed timeline and absence of a framework agreement incorporating permanent curbs have reinforced the 92% implied probability for no resolution. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough remains possible but would require rapid concessions from Tehran on inspection access and enrichment scope that have not materialized in recent exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$666,899Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. rejection of Iran's counterproposal on May 11, combined with ongoing disputes over the length of any uranium enrichment moratorium and the fate of Tehran's existing highly enriched stockpile, has solidified trader expectations against a nuclear deal by May 31. President Trump has signaled readiness for renewed military pressure if core demands on verifiable limits and sanctions relief are not met, while indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad remain stalled on these points amid active naval tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. With only two weeks remaining, the compressed timeline and absence of a framework agreement incorporating permanent curbs have reinforced the 92% implied probability for no resolution. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough remains possible but would require rapid concessions from Tehran on inspection access and enrichment scope that have not materialized in recent exchanges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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