Recent US-Iran talks, including indirect rounds mediated through Oman and Pakistan through early May 2026, have produced no agreement on core nuclear limits despite a reported US memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent disagreements remain over the duration of any uranium enrichment moratorium, with Washington seeking extended curbs and Tehran favoring shorter terms, alongside disputes on Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched material and verification measures. These unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic exchanges, combined with ongoing military tensions and sanctions pressure, have left traders assigning only single-digit implied odds to an official nuclear accord materializing by the May 31 deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$665,981 Обс.
$665,981 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$665,981 Обс.
$665,981 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent US-Iran talks, including indirect rounds mediated through Oman and Pakistan through early May 2026, have produced no agreement on core nuclear limits despite a reported US memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent disagreements remain over the duration of any uranium enrichment moratorium, with Washington seeking extended curbs and Tehran favoring shorter terms, alongside disputes on Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched material and verification measures. These unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic exchanges, combined with ongoing military tensions and sanctions pressure, have left traders assigning only single-digit implied odds to an official nuclear accord materializing by the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$665,981Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent US-Iran talks, including indirect rounds mediated through Oman and Pakistan through early May 2026, have produced no agreement on core nuclear limits despite a reported US memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent disagreements remain over the duration of any uranium enrichment moratorium, with Washington seeking extended curbs and Tehran favoring shorter terms, alongside disputes on Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched material and verification measures. These unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic exchanges, combined with ongoing military tensions and sanctions pressure, have left traders assigning only single-digit implied odds to an official nuclear accord materializing by the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$665,981Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran talks, including indirect rounds mediated through Oman and Pakistan through early May 2026, have produced no agreement on core nuclear limits despite a reported US memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent disagreements remain over the duration of any uranium enrichment moratorium, with Washington seeking extended curbs and Tehran favoring shorter terms, alongside disputes on Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched material and verification measures. These unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic exchanges, combined with ongoing military tensions and sanctions pressure, have left traders assigning only single-digit implied odds to an official nuclear accord materializing by the May 31 deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання