Traders assign a 98.6 percent implied probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any observable large-scale mobilization, amphibious buildup, or crossing of critical escalation thresholds in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and naval activity continues at levels below those seen in prior years, while recent U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including the mid-May summit between President Trump and General Secretary Xi, produced no departure from established positions on arms sales or cross-strait policy. Taiwan’s legislative passage of a special defense budget in early May further underscores ongoing deterrence efforts without triggering immediate crisis. With only six weeks remaining, the logistics of mounting an invasion make any sudden shift highly improbable absent unforeseen events such as an abrupt leadership decision or external shock capable of compressing decision timelines.