Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by assessments in Taiwan’s 2026 military power report that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustained air-sea control, and logistics for a full-scale landing. Recent months have shown routine PLA patrols and coast guard activity focused on blockade and encirclement tactics rather than invasion rehearsals, alongside notably lower aerial incursions than in prior years. Both sides continue military modernization and drills, yet no indicators of imminent cross-strait mobilization have emerged. Diplomatic channels ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit reinforce the low near-term risk. An invasion in the final days before the deadline would require undetected mass preparation inconsistent with observed patterns, though an abrupt summit breakdown or unforeseen trigger could theoretically alter calculations.