Greenland's path to independence requires parliamentary approval, a popular referendum, and Danish parliamentary consent under the 2009 Self-Government Act, with a constitutional commission report not due until late 2026. The current governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, has explicitly prioritized a gradual timeline and deferred any independence vote until after that review, consistent with recent election results favoring pragmatic negotiations over rapid separation. Polls indicate broad support for eventual independence but strong caution tied to economic viability and living standards, reinforced by statements rejecting external pressures in favor of continued Danish ties. These institutional and political constraints underpin the market's near-certain trader consensus against a completed referendum and affirmative vote by year-end. Late shifts could still arise from an accelerated commission timeline, coalition changes, or unforeseen economic developments.