**President Isaac Herzog holds sole authority under Israeli Basic Law to grant pardons or clemency, but he has repeatedly prioritized mediation toward a plea deal over Netanyahu’s November 2025 pre-conviction pardon request in the long-running corruption cases (Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000).** The Justice Ministry Pardons Department’s March 2026 opinion highlighted the extraordinary nature of clemency before conviction or any admission of guilt, recommending against it as procedurally and substantively problematic. Herzog has rebuffed direct pardon action while inviting negotiations, a stance unchanged through mid-2026 despite coalition pressure. Recent catalysts include June 2026 judicial suggestions that prosecutors drop the main bribery count after Netanyahu completed testimony, prompting renewed calls from ministers and coalition MKs for clemency or charge dismissal. Netanyahu’s trial remains active into the defense-witness and summation phases, with a verdict unlikely before late 2026 or beyond. Upcoming national elections (due by October 2026) add political volatility, as does external advocacy from U.S. President Trump, who has urged a pardon in letters and public statements. Trader consensus reflects these institutional and procedural barriers, pricing a near-term pardon as low-probability absent a major shift such as a successful plea framework, trial collapse, or altered presidential calculus. Resolution hinges on official confirmation from Herzog’s office or the government.