Mali’s military junta, backed by Russia’s Africa Corps, maintains firm control of Gao amid ongoing northern insurgency. Recent air-ground operations enabled forces to re-enter Kidal in early October after Azawad Liberation Front fighters conducted a strategic withdrawal rather than contest the city. This development, alongside sustained garrison presence in Gao and Timbuktu, has reinforced trader assessments that separatist and JNIM-aligned groups lack the immediate capacity for a successful urban seizure. The short resolution window to year-end further limits scope for major rebel advances against defended positions, even as ambushes and attrition continue on supply routes.