Despite President Trump’s February 2026 comments urging Republicans to “nationalize the voting” in multiple states and an April executive order directing federal agencies to oversee mail ballots and voter eligibility lists, the Constitution assigns primary responsibility for administering elections to the states. Republican-led states including Texas have publicly resisted any federal takeover, while Democratic attorneys general and election officials have filed immediate legal challenges citing separation-of-powers limits. No legislation granting broad federal control has advanced in Congress, and historical precedent shows courts have consistently blocked similar centralization attempts. These institutional and partisan barriers continue to underpin the 89 percent probability traders assign to no nationalization occurring before the 2026 midterms.