Ukrainian forces have achieved measurable gains in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing Russian infiltrators from multiple villages and disrupting logistics via intermediate-range strikes, yet these advances remain concentrated far from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Obratne and Temyrivka, captured by Russian units in late 2025 near Huliaipole, sit in a sector with limited reported Ukrainian counteroffensive activity as of mid-September 2026. Russian forces continue incremental pressure and defensive consolidation across the southern front while Ukrainian resources focus on the Fortress Belt and northern Donetsk axes. Trader consensus on a December 31, 2026 resolution reflects the low near-term likelihood of Ukrainian territorial recapture in these specific villages absent a major reallocation of forces or significant Russian setbacks elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and ongoing attrition on both sides represent the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
$69,347 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
December 31
34%
$69,347 Обс.
September 30
$25,877 Обс.
3%
December 31
$21,735 Обс.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have achieved measurable gains in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing Russian infiltrators from multiple villages and disrupting logistics via intermediate-range strikes, yet these advances remain concentrated far from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Obratne and Temyrivka, captured by Russian units in late 2025 near Huliaipole, sit in a sector with limited reported Ukrainian counteroffensive activity as of mid-September 2026. Russian forces continue incremental pressure and defensive consolidation across the southern front while Ukrainian resources focus on the Fortress Belt and northern Donetsk axes. Trader consensus on a December 31, 2026 resolution reflects the low near-term likelihood of Ukrainian territorial recapture in these specific villages absent a major reallocation of forces or significant Russian setbacks elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and ongoing attrition on both sides represent the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 9:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$69,347Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 9:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have achieved measurable gains in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing Russian infiltrators from multiple villages and disrupting logistics via intermediate-range strikes, yet these advances remain concentrated far from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Obratne and Temyrivka, captured by Russian units in late 2025 near Huliaipole, sit in a sector with limited reported Ukrainian counteroffensive activity as of mid-September 2026. Russian forces continue incremental pressure and defensive consolidation across the southern front while Ukrainian resources focus on the Fortress Belt and northern Donetsk axes. Trader consensus on a December 31, 2026 resolution reflects the low near-term likelihood of Ukrainian territorial recapture in these specific villages absent a major reallocation of forces or significant Russian setbacks elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and ongoing attrition on both sides represent the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$69,347Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 9:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have achieved measurable gains in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing Russian infiltrators from multiple villages and disrupting logistics via intermediate-range strikes, yet these advances remain concentrated far from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Obratne and Temyrivka, captured by Russian units in late 2025 near Huliaipole, sit in a sector with limited reported Ukrainian counteroffensive activity as of mid-September 2026. Russian forces continue incremental pressure and defensive consolidation across the southern front while Ukrainian resources focus on the Fortress Belt and northern Donetsk axes. Trader consensus on a December 31, 2026 resolution reflects the low near-term likelihood of Ukrainian territorial recapture in these specific villages absent a major reallocation of forces or significant Russian setbacks elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and ongoing attrition on both sides represent the primary variables that could alter positioning before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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