Despite President Trump’s repeated public statements and shared maps referencing potential U.S. acquisition of Greenland, influence over Canada, or control of the Strait of Hormuz through 2026, no official declaration or legal act claiming new sovereignty has occurred. Denmark, Greenlandic leaders, and Canada have firmly rejected any transfer, while international law and post-1945 norms bar forcible annexation without consent or Senate ratification. Domestic polling shows overwhelming opposition to military options, and ongoing diplomatic talks have produced no completed agreements or legislative action. Traders assign “No” a 94.8% implied probability, reflecting these structural barriers and the absence of qualifying developments with four months remaining in the year.