US military intervention in Venezuela earlier in 2026 led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro and significant American influence over oil policy, finances, and foreign affairs through the interim government, yet produced no formal annexation process or congressional measures toward statehood. Venezuela retains sovereign status as a separate nation, with reestablished diplomatic ties focused on stability and economic recovery rather than territorial incorporation. Adding a new state requires specific constitutional steps, including congressional approval and local consent, none of which have advanced amid ongoing governance pressures. Traders reflect this structural reality in the near-certain consensus on no annexation by year-end, though abrupt policy reversals or unforeseen diplomatic shifts remain remote possibilities that could alter the trajectory.