Ongoing martial law, extended by Ukraine’s parliament for another 90 days in late April 2026 and set to run until early August, continues to bar national elections under the constitution while the war with Russia persists. No ceasefire or security guarantees have materialized despite recent talks between President Zelenskyy and U.S. envoys, leaving the electoral commission’s six-month post-ceasefire requirement unmet. With no active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or viable alternative removal mechanisms before the June 30 cutoff, traders assign a 96.7 percent probability that Zelenskyy remains in office. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough producing a stable ceasefire within weeks could theoretically open a narrow legal window, though current battlefield and negotiation realities make such a shift before the resolution date highly improbable.