Ukraine's constitutional ban on holding presidential elections during martial law, extended by parliament through early August 2026, forms the primary structural barrier keeping Volodymyr Zelenskyy in office through the June 30 resolution date. Recent Russian missile strikes on civilian areas and Zelenskyy's approval of retaliatory operations have reinforced wartime conditions, with no verified ceasefire or security guarantees in place to enable a vote. Traders' near-unanimous consensus on his continued tenure reflects these legal and security realities, though abrupt resignation, health developments, or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough could still shift the outcome before the deadline.