Traders assign a 93.7 percent probability to “No” because Ukraine has shown no movement toward a formal public commitment to forgo NATO membership before the June 30, 2026 deadline. NATO leaders continue to describe Kyiv’s path to accession as irreversible, with recent statements from Secretary General Mark Rutte noting persistent alliance divisions that have slowed but not reversed the process. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has confirmed participation in the July NATO summit while polls indicate sustained domestic support near 69 percent for eventual membership. Absent a binding ceasefire or comprehensive peace framework that would require neutrality as a concession, no diplomatic runway exists for such an agreement in the remaining weeks. The near-unanimous market pricing therefore reflects the absence of any verifiable shift in Ukraine’s stated security posture.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$38,526 Обс.
$38,526 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$38,526 Обс.
$38,526 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Traders assign a 93.7 percent probability to “No” because Ukraine has shown no movement toward a formal public commitment to forgo NATO membership before the June 30, 2026 deadline. NATO leaders continue to describe Kyiv’s path to accession as irreversible, with recent statements from Secretary General Mark Rutte noting persistent alliance divisions that have slowed but not reversed the process. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has confirmed participation in the July NATO summit while polls indicate sustained domestic support near 69 percent for eventual membership. Absent a binding ceasefire or comprehensive peace framework that would require neutrality as a concession, no diplomatic runway exists for such an agreement in the remaining weeks. The near-unanimous market pricing therefore reflects the absence of any verifiable shift in Ukraine’s stated security posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Обсяг
$38,526Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Traders assign a 93.7 percent probability to “No” because Ukraine has shown no movement toward a formal public commitment to forgo NATO membership before the June 30, 2026 deadline. NATO leaders continue to describe Kyiv’s path to accession as irreversible, with recent statements from Secretary General Mark Rutte noting persistent alliance divisions that have slowed but not reversed the process. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has confirmed participation in the July NATO summit while polls indicate sustained domestic support near 69 percent for eventual membership. Absent a binding ceasefire or comprehensive peace framework that would require neutrality as a concession, no diplomatic runway exists for such an agreement in the remaining weeks. The near-unanimous market pricing therefore reflects the absence of any verifiable shift in Ukraine’s stated security posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Обсяг
$38,526Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.7 percent probability to “No” because Ukraine has shown no movement toward a formal public commitment to forgo NATO membership before the June 30, 2026 deadline. NATO leaders continue to describe Kyiv’s path to accession as irreversible, with recent statements from Secretary General Mark Rutte noting persistent alliance divisions that have slowed but not reversed the process. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has confirmed participation in the July NATO summit while polls indicate sustained domestic support near 69 percent for eventual membership. Absent a binding ceasefire or comprehensive peace framework that would require neutrality as a concession, no diplomatic runway exists for such an agreement in the remaining weeks. The near-unanimous market pricing therefore reflects the absence of any verifiable shift in Ukraine’s stated security posture.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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