Near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by programs like NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which have identified no impacting bodies of that scale through the remainder of the year. Continuous radar and optical surveys, combined with orbital modeling, show zero credible threats matching the energy release of roughly a 40-meter asteroid, making an undetected impact statistically remote. While small-object discovery gaps or last-minute trajectory shifts from fragmentation could theoretically alter outcomes, historical impact frequencies and real-time data reinforce the overwhelming market-implied probability against any such event before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% khả năng
$116,920 KL.
$116,920 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
2% khả năng
$116,920 KL.
$116,920 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by programs like NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which have identified no impacting bodies of that scale through the remainder of the year. Continuous radar and optical surveys, combined with orbital modeling, show zero credible threats matching the energy release of roughly a 40-meter asteroid, making an undetected impact statistically remote. While small-object discovery gaps or last-minute trajectory shifts from fragmentation could theoretically alter outcomes, historical impact frequencies and real-time data reinforce the overwhelming market-implied probability against any such event before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$116,920Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by programs like NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which have identified no impacting bodies of that scale through the remainder of the year. Continuous radar and optical surveys, combined with orbital modeling, show zero credible threats matching the energy release of roughly a 40-meter asteroid, making an undetected impact statistically remote. While small-object discovery gaps or last-minute trajectory shifts from fragmentation could theoretically alter outcomes, historical impact frequencies and real-time data reinforce the overwhelming market-implied probability against any such event before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$116,920Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Near-certain trader consensus on "No" for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by programs like NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which have identified no impacting bodies of that scale through the remainder of the year. Continuous radar and optical surveys, combined with orbital modeling, show zero credible threats matching the energy release of roughly a 40-meter asteroid, making an undetected impact statistically remote. While small-object discovery gaps or last-minute trajectory shifts from fragmentation could theoretically alter outcomes, historical impact frequencies and real-time data reinforce the overwhelming market-implied probability against any such event before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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