Andy Biggs commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Arizona's Republican gubernatorial primary on July 21, reflecting his sustained double-digit polling leads over Rep. David Schweikert in surveys through April, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, superior fundraising—ending March with over 10 times Schweikert's cash on hand—and the highest nominating signatures filed that month. Karrin Taylor Robson's February withdrawal further consolidated conservative support behind Biggs, the Freedom Caucus chair with prior state Senate leadership experience. Schweikert's attack ads have gained limited traction amid Biggs' grassroots strength. Late-breaking scandals, a Schweikert surge via moderate endorsements, or external events like legal challenges could shift dynamics, though incumbency advantages and historical primary base rates favor the frontrunner.