Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 2026 Senate race due to the state’s consistent Republican dominance in federal elections and his established record since 2015. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing renomination by a wide margin and Democrat Hallie Shoffner advancing as her party’s nominee, yet polling averages and fundraising data continue to reflect limited crossover support for the challenger. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors, including voter registration trends and past statewide results, have historically produced large margins for the GOP in this seat. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant national political realignment within the remaining campaign window through November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtArkansas Senate Election Winner
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
$10,561 KL.
$10,561 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
3%
$10,561 KL.
$10,561 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$7,677 KL.
95%
Democrat
$2,884 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 2026 Senate race due to the state’s consistent Republican dominance in federal elections and his established record since 2015. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing renomination by a wide margin and Democrat Hallie Shoffner advancing as her party’s nominee, yet polling averages and fundraising data continue to reflect limited crossover support for the challenger. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors, including voter registration trends and past statewide results, have historically produced large margins for the GOP in this seat. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant national political realignment within the remaining campaign window through November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,561Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 2026 Senate race due to the state’s consistent Republican dominance in federal elections and his established record since 2015. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing renomination by a wide margin and Democrat Hallie Shoffner advancing as her party’s nominee, yet polling averages and fundraising data continue to reflect limited crossover support for the challenger. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors, including voter registration trends and past statewide results, have historically produced large margins for the GOP in this seat. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant national political realignment within the remaining campaign window through November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$10,561Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 2026 Senate race due to the state’s consistent Republican dominance in federal elections and his established record since 2015. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing renomination by a wide margin and Democrat Hallie Shoffner advancing as her party’s nominee, yet polling averages and fundraising data continue to reflect limited crossover support for the challenger. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors, including voter registration trends and past statewide results, have historically produced large margins for the GOP in this seat. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant national political realignment within the remaining campaign window through November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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