Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to run for Alabama governor instead created an open U.S. Senate seat, fueling a crowded Republican primary where Rep. Barry Moore holds a slim lead in polls released May 3–7, with a runoff likely after the May 19 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability to win the November 3 general election, reflecting Alabama's deep-red status—Trump's 30-point 2024 victory, no Democratic Senate win since 1992, and weak Democratic primary field featuring Kyle Sweetser and others lacking statewide traction. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, brutal primary attacks, or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, though structural barriers remain high.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlabama Senate Election Winner
Alabama Senate Election Winner
$10,160 KL.
$10,160 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
6%
$10,160 KL.
$10,160 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$6,336 KL.
95%
Democrat
$3,823 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to run for Alabama governor instead created an open U.S. Senate seat, fueling a crowded Republican primary where Rep. Barry Moore holds a slim lead in polls released May 3–7, with a runoff likely after the May 19 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability to win the November 3 general election, reflecting Alabama's deep-red status—Trump's 30-point 2024 victory, no Democratic Senate win since 1992, and weak Democratic primary field featuring Kyle Sweetser and others lacking statewide traction. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, brutal primary attacks, or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,160Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to run for Alabama governor instead created an open U.S. Senate seat, fueling a crowded Republican primary where Rep. Barry Moore holds a slim lead in polls released May 3–7, with a runoff likely after the May 19 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability to win the November 3 general election, reflecting Alabama's deep-red status—Trump's 30-point 2024 victory, no Democratic Senate win since 1992, and weak Democratic primary field featuring Kyle Sweetser and others lacking statewide traction. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, brutal primary attacks, or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$10,160Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's May 2025 decision to run for Alabama governor instead created an open U.S. Senate seat, fueling a crowded Republican primary where Rep. Barry Moore holds a slim lead in polls released May 3–7, with a runoff likely after the May 19 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability to win the November 3 general election, reflecting Alabama's deep-red status—Trump's 30-point 2024 victory, no Democratic Senate win since 1992, and weak Democratic primary field featuring Kyle Sweetser and others lacking statewide traction. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, brutal primary attacks, or national Democratic wave could narrow odds, though structural barriers remain high.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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