Democrats hold consistent leads of 7–10 points on the generic congressional ballot in final national polls, reflecting voter frustration with inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and the Iran conflict under the incumbent administration. This environment supports forecasts of Democratic gains sufficient for House control and a competitive Senate outcome. However, structural factors including the Senate map, recent redistricting advantages for Republicans, and the limited number of truly competitive districts constrain the scale of potential shifts. Aggregated projections place likely Democratic House totals near or modestly above 230 seats and Senate control as a toss-up, short of thresholds associated with a mega-tsunami. Trader consensus on the 75.5% probability for “No” aligns with these historical and geographic limits on wave magnitude despite the national headwinds.