California's 1st congressional district underwent major redistricting under Proposition 50 ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan lean dramatically leftward and prompting independent forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic. The new boundaries incorporate more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, altering registration advantages and historical voting patterns. In the June primary on the updated map, Republican incumbent James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to November, but the district's composition now favors the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these structural changes and limited recent polling or events indicating a reversal. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low Democratic turnout, late developments in candidate positioning, or broader national dynamics altering participation in this November contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$32,990 KL.
$32,990 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$32,990 KL.
$32,990 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$24,268 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$8,722 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district underwent major redistricting under Proposition 50 ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan lean dramatically leftward and prompting independent forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic. The new boundaries incorporate more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, altering registration advantages and historical voting patterns. In the June primary on the updated map, Republican incumbent James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to November, but the district's composition now favors the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these structural changes and limited recent polling or events indicating a reversal. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low Democratic turnout, late developments in candidate positioning, or broader national dynamics altering participation in this November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$32,990Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district underwent major redistricting under Proposition 50 ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan lean dramatically leftward and prompting independent forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic. The new boundaries incorporate more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, altering registration advantages and historical voting patterns. In the June primary on the updated map, Republican incumbent James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to November, but the district's composition now favors the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these structural changes and limited recent polling or events indicating a reversal. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low Democratic turnout, late developments in candidate positioning, or broader national dynamics altering participation in this November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,990Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 1st congressional district underwent major redistricting under Proposition 50 ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan lean dramatically leftward and prompting independent forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic. The new boundaries incorporate more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, altering registration advantages and historical voting patterns. In the June primary on the updated map, Republican incumbent James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to November, but the district's composition now favors the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these structural changes and limited recent polling or events indicating a reversal. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low Democratic turnout, late developments in candidate positioning, or broader national dynamics altering participation in this November contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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