Recent polling in the Dublin Central constituency ahead of the May 22 by-election shows Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, followed closely by Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis at 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent. Traders have priced Ennis as the clear favorite with a 69.5 percent implied probability, driven by expectations that he will attract substantial transfers from eliminated left-leaning candidates including those from Labour, the Greens, and People Before Profit under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. Boylan’s position at 20.6 percent reflects her stronger initial base but weaker projected flow of later preferences, while Hutch at 7.3 percent faces barriers from limited cross-party transfers. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in Irish by-elections where transfer dynamics often decide single-seat contests.