United Russia’s strong preliminary performance in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election underpins trader expectations of a large seat haul. With roughly 82% of protocols processed, the party holds about 57.8% of the party-list vote, well ahead of the Communist Party at 13.9% and other systemic parties, while dominating most single-mandate districts. Higher turnout near 57% and the exclusion of non-systemic challengers such as Yabloko have concentrated support behind the ruling party in a wartime setting. These factors align with the market’s heavy weighting toward 340-plus seats, as the mixed electoral system and limited competition favor substantial gains over the 324 seats won in 2021. Final seat allocation awaits complete counting and official confirmation, but early trends point to a constitutional majority comfortably exceeding prior benchmarks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
355+ 63.8%
340–354 35%
325–339 1.4%
310–324 <1%
$2,015,988 KL.
$2,015,988 KL.
<280
<1%
280–294
<1%
295–309
1%
310–324
1%
325–339
1%
340–354
35%
355+
64%
355+ 63.8%
340–354 35%
325–339 1.4%
310–324 <1%
$2,015,988 KL.
$2,015,988 KL.
<280
<1%
280–294
<1%
295–309
1%
310–324
1%
325–339
1%
340–354
35%
355+
64%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Thị trường mở: Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia’s strong preliminary performance in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election underpins trader expectations of a large seat haul. With roughly 82% of protocols processed, the party holds about 57.8% of the party-list vote, well ahead of the Communist Party at 13.9% and other systemic parties, while dominating most single-mandate districts. Higher turnout near 57% and the exclusion of non-systemic challengers such as Yabloko have concentrated support behind the ruling party in a wartime setting. These factors align with the market’s heavy weighting toward 340-plus seats, as the mixed electoral system and limited competition favor substantial gains over the 324 seats won in 2021. Final seat allocation awaits complete counting and official confirmation, but early trends point to a constitutional majority comfortably exceeding prior benchmarks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win fewer than 45 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
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