Lebanon’s next parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed by parliament in March 2026 until after the current mandate expires in May 2028, leaving the contest more than 18 months away amid a fragmented, confessional electoral system that allocates seats by sect and rewards cross-sectarian alliances. Trader consensus remains dispersed, with Amal Movement edging ahead at low-single-digit implied probability while nearly all other listed parties sit near 0.1 percent, reflecting the absence of any dominant bloc following the 2022 results and the fluid coalition-building typical of Lebanese politics. Recent catalysts include the formation of a new government under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in early 2025, ongoing U.S.-mediated talks with Israel over southern security and potential Hezbollah disarmament, and domestic debates over a hybrid electoral law blending majoritarian and proportional elements. These developments underscore structural barriers such as the need for broad sectarian pacts, sensitivity to regional pressures from Iran and Gulf states, and uncertainty over how security arrangements or a revised voting framework could reshape vote distribution. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require clearer signals on alliance patterns, municipal-election momentum, or breakthroughs resolving southern tensions before the extended timeline narrows the field.