Lebanon's parliamentary election presents a fragmented contest shaped by the country's confessional system, which allocates seats among sectarian communities and prevents any single party from securing broad dominance. Traders assign the highest probability to the Amal Movement at 7.3 percent, followed closely by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent, reflecting persistent divisions between traditional alliances and reform-oriented challengers. Recent border tensions and stalled economic recovery efforts have heightened scrutiny of groups tied to militias, while opposition blocs gain from voter frustration with governance failures. Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and potential coalition realignments among Shia, Sunni, and Christian factions remain the primary variables that could consolidate support behind one outcome before voting occurs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNgười chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon
Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon
Phong trào Amal (Amal) 6.3%
Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%
Đảng Taqaddom 3.9%
ReLebanon 3.0%
$532,343 KL.
$532,343 KL.
May 31, 2026
Phong trào Amal (Amal)
6%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
5%
Đảng Taqaddom
4%
ReLebanon
3%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
3%
Phong trào Marada (MM)
3%
Hiệp hội Dự án Từ thiện Hồi giáo (ICPA)
3%
Liên minh Watani (Watani)
2%
Phong trào Yêu nước Tự do (FPM)
2%
Đảng Kataeb (Kataeb)
1%
Union Party (UP)
1%
Đảng Tự Do Quốc Gia (NLP)
1%
Tổ chức Nasserist Đại chúng (PNO)
1%
Nhóm Hồi giáo (IG)
<1%
Đảng Đối thoại Quốc gia (NDP)
<1%
Đảng Cách mạng Armenia (ARF)
<1%
Đảng Mada (Mada)
<1%
Lana – Đảng Dân chủ Xã hội (Lana)
<1%
Đảng Xã hội Ả Rập Ba'ath tại Liban (Ba'ath)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Đảng Xã hội Tiến bộ (PSP)
<1%
Phong trào Độc lập (IM)
<1%
Phong trào Phẩm giá (DM)
<1%
Phong trào Amal (Amal) 6.3%
Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%
Đảng Taqaddom 3.9%
ReLebanon 3.0%
$532,343 KL.
$532,343 KL.
May 31, 2026
Phong trào Amal (Amal)
$53,709 KL.
6%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
$158,091 KL.
5%
Đảng Taqaddom
$6,065 KL.
4%
ReLebanon
$3,247 KL.
3%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
$44,038 KL.
3%
Phong trào Marada (MM)
$3,796 KL.
3%
Hiệp hội Dự án Từ thiện Hồi giáo (ICPA)
$4,398 KL.
3%
Liên minh Watani (Watani)
$4,686 KL.
2%
Phong trào Yêu nước Tự do (FPM)
$74,483 KL.
2%
Đảng Kataeb (Kataeb)
$4,126 KL.
1%
Union Party (UP)
$3,376 KL.
1%
Đảng Tự Do Quốc Gia (NLP)
$5,135 KL.
1%
Tổ chức Nasserist Đại chúng (PNO)
$4,584 KL.
1%
Nhóm Hồi giáo (IG)
$3,585 KL.
<1%
Đảng Đối thoại Quốc gia (NDP)
$41,888 KL.
<1%
Đảng Cách mạng Armenia (ARF)
$5,112 KL.
<1%
Đảng Mada (Mada)
$24,363 KL.
<1%
Lana – Đảng Dân chủ Xã hội (Lana)
$4,450 KL.
<1%
Đảng Xã hội Ả Rập Ba'ath tại Liban (Ba'ath)
$6,573 KL.
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$3,330 KL.
<1%
Đảng Xã hội Tiến bộ (PSP)
$47,456 KL.
<1%
Phong trào Độc lập (IM)
$3,135 KL.
<1%
Phong trào Phẩm giá (DM)
$22,716 KL.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election presents a fragmented contest shaped by the country's confessional system, which allocates seats among sectarian communities and prevents any single party from securing broad dominance. Traders assign the highest probability to the Amal Movement at 7.3 percent, followed closely by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent, reflecting persistent divisions between traditional alliances and reform-oriented challengers. Recent border tensions and stalled economic recovery efforts have heightened scrutiny of groups tied to militias, while opposition blocs gain from voter frustration with governance failures. Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and potential coalition realignments among Shia, Sunni, and Christian factions remain the primary variables that could consolidate support behind one outcome before voting occurs.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$532,343Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election presents a fragmented contest shaped by the country's confessional system, which allocates seats among sectarian communities and prevents any single party from securing broad dominance. Traders assign the highest probability to the Amal Movement at 7.3 percent, followed closely by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent, reflecting persistent divisions between traditional alliances and reform-oriented challengers. Recent border tensions and stalled economic recovery efforts have heightened scrutiny of groups tied to militias, while opposition blocs gain from voter frustration with governance failures. Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and potential coalition realignments among Shia, Sunni, and Christian factions remain the primary variables that could consolidate support behind one outcome before voting occurs.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Khối lượng
$532,343Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliamentary election presents a fragmented contest shaped by the country's confessional system, which allocates seats among sectarian communities and prevents any single party from securing broad dominance. Traders assign the highest probability to the Amal Movement at 7.3 percent, followed closely by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent, reflecting persistent divisions between traditional alliances and reform-oriented challengers. Recent border tensions and stalled economic recovery efforts have heightened scrutiny of groups tied to militias, while opposition blocs gain from voter frustration with governance failures. Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and potential coalition realignments among Shia, Sunni, and Christian factions remain the primary variables that could consolidate support behind one outcome before voting occurs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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