Traders assign roughly equal 50% implied probabilities across 33–40°C+ for Chongqing’s August 25 peak because short-range ensemble forecasts show substantial spread driven by the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors 36–39°C under clear, subsiding conditions, offset by the timing and coverage of scattered afternoon thunderstorms and convection that can shave several degrees via cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical late-August climatology centers on 32–35°C highs with high humidity, yet recent model runs and the city’s complex terrain introduce enough local variability—urban heat islands versus riverine cooling—to keep outcomes widely distributed. The near-zero odds below 33°C reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal cooling this far into the season.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Chongqing on August 25?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 25?
37°C 37%
36°C 31%
35°C 28%
38°C 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
11%
34°C
13%
35°C
28%
36°C
31%
37°C
37%
38°C
15%
39°C
10%
40°C or higher
17%
37°C 37%
36°C 31%
35°C 28%
38°C 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$0 KL.
1%
31°C
$10 KL.
2%
32°C
$20 KL.
4%
33°C
$0 KL.
11%
34°C
$0 KL.
13%
35°C
$20 KL.
28%
36°C
$0 KL.
31%
37°C
$0 KL.
37%
38°C
$40 KL.
15%
39°C
$0 KL.
10%
40°C or higher
$0 KL.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign roughly equal 50% implied probabilities across 33–40°C+ for Chongqing’s August 25 peak because short-range ensemble forecasts show substantial spread driven by the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors 36–39°C under clear, subsiding conditions, offset by the timing and coverage of scattered afternoon thunderstorms and convection that can shave several degrees via cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical late-August climatology centers on 32–35°C highs with high humidity, yet recent model runs and the city’s complex terrain introduce enough local variability—urban heat islands versus riverine cooling—to keep outcomes widely distributed. The near-zero odds below 33°C reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal cooling this far into the season.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$90Ngày kết thúc
Aug 25, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign roughly equal 50% implied probabilities across 33–40°C+ for Chongqing’s August 25 peak because short-range ensemble forecasts show substantial spread driven by the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors 36–39°C under clear, subsiding conditions, offset by the timing and coverage of scattered afternoon thunderstorms and convection that can shave several degrees via cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical late-August climatology centers on 32–35°C highs with high humidity, yet recent model runs and the city’s complex terrain introduce enough local variability—urban heat islands versus riverine cooling—to keep outcomes widely distributed. The near-zero odds below 33°C reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal cooling this far into the season.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$90Ngày kết thúc
Aug 25, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign roughly equal 50% implied probabilities across 33–40°C+ for Chongqing’s August 25 peak because short-range ensemble forecasts show substantial spread driven by the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors 36–39°C under clear, subsiding conditions, offset by the timing and coverage of scattered afternoon thunderstorms and convection that can shave several degrees via cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical late-August climatology centers on 32–35°C highs with high humidity, yet recent model runs and the city’s complex terrain introduce enough local variability—urban heat islands versus riverine cooling—to keep outcomes widely distributed. The near-zero odds below 33°C reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal cooling this far into the season.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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