Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak daytime temperature in Guangzhou on August 29 most likely between 35–37°C, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions with high humidity, light winds, and afternoon convective heating under partly cloudy skies. Scattered thunderstorms or showers, common in the region during this period, could reduce insolation and cap the maximum, supporting the close market-implied probabilities for 36°C and 37°C. Official climatological baselines for late August average near 33°C, but recent days have trended warmer with observed highs in the mid-30s amid variable moisture. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted cloud cover and precipitation timing, leaving modest room for 35°C or 38°C depending on how quickly any rain clears.