**Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major meteorological services project a low temperature of 55–56°F for San Francisco on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 56–57°F outcome at 47.5% implied probability.** This reflects the typical late-summer marine layer regime along the California coast, where onshore westerly winds and increasing low-level cloud cover limit overnight radiational cooling. Current model consensus shows the marine layer deepening through the weekend, with west-to-northwest winds of 10–20 mph maintaining a stable cool-air mass and keeping minimum temperatures near the climatological average low of 56°F for the date. Recent developments include a post-heat surge pattern that has reinforced coastal stratus and suppressed warming, consistent with NWS area forecast discussions noting breezy onshore flow and gradual marine-layer recovery. Higher bins such as 58–59°F (29%) or 54–55°F (16.5%) remain plausible if model timing of cloud cover or wind strength shifts slightly, but the tight clustering around 55–57°F underscores strong trader alignment with verified observational baselines and short-range guidance.