**Official Met Office guidance points to a 24°C maximum for London on August 28 amid morning sunny spells followed by scattered afternoon showers and possible thunder.** This setup, with southwesterly winds around 15–20 mph and temperatures starting from overnight lows near 16–17°C, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C (37.5%) and 25°C or higher (51.5%). Model spreads and shower timing introduce uncertainty—delayed or lighter convection could permit brief peaks near or above 25°C before cooling, while earlier or heavier rain would cap readings closer to 23°C. Current conditions sit above late-August climatological norms (typically 20–22°C), consistent with trader emphasis on the upper end of the forecast range. Updated NWP runs and surface observations through midday will likely drive any further shifts in implied probabilities.