Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for Miami on August 26 points to a high near 87–89°F amid likely afternoon thunderstorms and extensive cloud cover, aligning with the market's leading 90–91°F and 88–89°F bins. Sea-breeze convergence, high humidity, and convective activity are expected to limit peak heating below the late-August climatological average of roughly 90–91°F, while any early clearing could allow brief pushes into the low 90s. Historical analogs and current ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty around storm timing and coverage, which traders appear to weigh heavily given the tight clustering of implied probabilities. Updated forecast discussions and radar trends tomorrow morning represent the next key data points for resolution.