Global seismic activity during June 8–14, 2026, produced well over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes, aligning with the market’s 99.8% implied probability on the >9 outcome. USGS and monitoring reports document typical background rates of roughly 1–3 events per day at this threshold worldwide, augmented by clusters such as the M6.1 near Cuba on June 8 and additional M5.5+ shocks in tectonically active zones. Historical weekly averages for M5.5+ events fall in the 8–15 range, and no unusual quiescence occurred. Only an unprecedented global lull—far below observed variability—could have shifted the count to 9 or fewer, a scenario unsupported by real-time catalogs or recent model runs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
>9 99.8%
9 <1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$36,378 KL.
$36,378 KL.
Jun 15, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
1%
>9
100%
>9 99.8%
9 <1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$36,378 KL.
$36,378 KL.
Jun 15, 2026
≤3
$3,377 KL.
<1%
4
$2,340 KL.
<1%
5
$3,737 KL.
<1%
6
$4,037 KL.
<1%
7
$4,080 KL.
<1%
8
$4,746 KL.
<1%
9
$3,581 KL.
1%
>9
$10,480 KL.
100%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity during June 8–14, 2026, produced well over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes, aligning with the market’s 99.8% implied probability on the >9 outcome. USGS and monitoring reports document typical background rates of roughly 1–3 events per day at this threshold worldwide, augmented by clusters such as the M6.1 near Cuba on June 8 and additional M5.5+ shocks in tectonically active zones. Historical weekly averages for M5.5+ events fall in the 8–15 range, and no unusual quiescence occurred. Only an unprecedented global lull—far below observed variability—could have shifted the count to 9 or fewer, a scenario unsupported by real-time catalogs or recent model runs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$36,378Ngày kết thúc
Jun 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity during June 8–14, 2026, produced well over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes, aligning with the market’s 99.8% implied probability on the >9 outcome. USGS and monitoring reports document typical background rates of roughly 1–3 events per day at this threshold worldwide, augmented by clusters such as the M6.1 near Cuba on June 8 and additional M5.5+ shocks in tectonically active zones. Historical weekly averages for M5.5+ events fall in the 8–15 range, and no unusual quiescence occurred. Only an unprecedented global lull—far below observed variability—could have shifted the count to 9 or fewer, a scenario unsupported by real-time catalogs or recent model runs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$36,378Ngày kết thúc
Jun 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity during June 8–14, 2026, produced well over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes, aligning with the market’s 99.8% implied probability on the >9 outcome. USGS and monitoring reports document typical background rates of roughly 1–3 events per day at this threshold worldwide, augmented by clusters such as the M6.1 near Cuba on June 8 and additional M5.5+ shocks in tectonically active zones. Historical weekly averages for M5.5+ events fall in the 8–15 range, and no unusual quiescence occurred. Only an unprecedented global lull—far below observed variability—could have shifted the count to 9 or fewer, a scenario unsupported by real-time catalogs or recent model runs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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