Recent official forecasts and model consensus highlight a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear driving Saudel's rapid intensification potential in the western Pacific. Currently a tropical storm with winds near 45-50 knots, the system is projected to reach typhoon strength within 24-48 hours and peak around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicating a "very strong" classification at central pressures near 940 hPa and sustained winds approaching 90 knots before encountering cooler waters left by prior systems. This environmental setup supports the market's leading outcomes for Very Strong or Violent Typhoon intensity, though model spreads and later-stage weakening introduce uncertainty around the precise peak on the Saffir-Simpson or JMA scales.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 55%
Violent Typhoon 30%
Typhoon 16%
Severe Tropical Storm 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
1%
Severe Tropical Storm
5%
Typhoon
16%
Very Strong Typhoon
55%
Violent Typhoon
30%
Very Strong Typhoon 55%
Violent Typhoon 30%
Typhoon 16%
Severe Tropical Storm 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$402 KL.
1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$98 KL.
5%
Typhoon
$128 KL.
16%
Very Strong Typhoon
$242 KL.
55%
Violent Typhoon
$336 KL.
30%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent official forecasts and model consensus highlight a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear driving Saudel's rapid intensification potential in the western Pacific. Currently a tropical storm with winds near 45-50 knots, the system is projected to reach typhoon strength within 24-48 hours and peak around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicating a "very strong" classification at central pressures near 940 hPa and sustained winds approaching 90 knots before encountering cooler waters left by prior systems. This environmental setup supports the market's leading outcomes for Very Strong or Violent Typhoon intensity, though model spreads and later-stage weakening introduce uncertainty around the precise peak on the Saffir-Simpson or JMA scales.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,206Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent official forecasts and model consensus highlight a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear driving Saudel's rapid intensification potential in the western Pacific. Currently a tropical storm with winds near 45-50 knots, the system is projected to reach typhoon strength within 24-48 hours and peak around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicating a "very strong" classification at central pressures near 940 hPa and sustained winds approaching 90 knots before encountering cooler waters left by prior systems. This environmental setup supports the market's leading outcomes for Very Strong or Violent Typhoon intensity, though model spreads and later-stage weakening introduce uncertainty around the precise peak on the Saffir-Simpson or JMA scales.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Khối lượng
$1,206Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts and model consensus highlight a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear driving Saudel's rapid intensification potential in the western Pacific. Currently a tropical storm with winds near 45-50 knots, the system is projected to reach typhoon strength within 24-48 hours and peak around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicating a "very strong" classification at central pressures near 940 hPa and sustained winds approaching 90 knots before encountering cooler waters left by prior systems. This environmental setup supports the market's leading outcomes for Very Strong or Violent Typhoon intensity, though model spreads and later-stage weakening introduce uncertainty around the precise peak on the Saffir-Simpson or JMA scales.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp