The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, created immediate leadership uncertainty resolved by Mojtaba Khamenei's March election through the Assembly of Experts. Ongoing naval blockade tensions, IRGC coordination with regional proxies, and factional disputes over U.S. negotiations have sustained internal pressures, including hardliner accusations of coup plotting tied to truce and succession dynamics. Economic strain from the conflict and sanctions has amplified domestic discontent without triggering coordinated challenges to core institutions like the IRGC or Guardian Council. Trader consensus on low probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end reflects the regime's demonstrated continuity and preference for controlled escalation or diplomacy over internal upheaval, though renewed hostilities or negotiation breakdowns could introduce volatility.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,122,592 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,592 KL.
December 31
$81,367 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, created immediate leadership uncertainty resolved by Mojtaba Khamenei's March election through the Assembly of Experts. Ongoing naval blockade tensions, IRGC coordination with regional proxies, and factional disputes over U.S. negotiations have sustained internal pressures, including hardliner accusations of coup plotting tied to truce and succession dynamics. Economic strain from the conflict and sanctions has amplified domestic discontent without triggering coordinated challenges to core institutions like the IRGC or Guardian Council. Trader consensus on low probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end reflects the regime's demonstrated continuity and preference for controlled escalation or diplomacy over internal upheaval, though renewed hostilities or negotiation breakdowns could introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,122,592Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, created immediate leadership uncertainty resolved by Mojtaba Khamenei's March election through the Assembly of Experts. Ongoing naval blockade tensions, IRGC coordination with regional proxies, and factional disputes over U.S. negotiations have sustained internal pressures, including hardliner accusations of coup plotting tied to truce and succession dynamics. Economic strain from the conflict and sanctions has amplified domestic discontent without triggering coordinated challenges to core institutions like the IRGC or Guardian Council. Trader consensus on low probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end reflects the regime's demonstrated continuity and preference for controlled escalation or diplomacy over internal upheaval, though renewed hostilities or negotiation breakdowns could introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,122,592Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, created immediate leadership uncertainty resolved by Mojtaba Khamenei's March election through the Assembly of Experts. Ongoing naval blockade tensions, IRGC coordination with regional proxies, and factional disputes over U.S. negotiations have sustained internal pressures, including hardliner accusations of coup plotting tied to truce and succession dynamics. Economic strain from the conflict and sanctions has amplified domestic discontent without triggering coordinated challenges to core institutions like the IRGC or Guardian Council. Trader consensus on low probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end reflects the regime's demonstrated continuity and preference for controlled escalation or diplomacy over internal upheaval, though renewed hostilities or negotiation breakdowns could introduce volatility.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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