The current 91% implied probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 reflects trader assessment that the post-war power structure has consolidated under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and leadership decapitation, the IRGC has expanded de facto control over security and economic institutions, sidelining civilian figures and suppressing residual protest activity from earlier in the year. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and military rebuilding efforts, supported by external actors, have prioritized internal cohesion over factional challenges. With no verified coup plots or elite defections reported in recent weeks, traders view the compressed timeline as insufficient for organized internal action capable of altering regime continuity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$1,126,262 KL.
$1,126,262 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Có
$1,126,262 KL.
$1,126,262 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The current 91% implied probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 reflects trader assessment that the post-war power structure has consolidated under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and leadership decapitation, the IRGC has expanded de facto control over security and economic institutions, sidelining civilian figures and suppressing residual protest activity from earlier in the year. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and military rebuilding efforts, supported by external actors, have prioritized internal cohesion over factional challenges. With no verified coup plots or elite defections reported in recent weeks, traders view the compressed timeline as insufficient for organized internal action capable of altering regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,126,262Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The current 91% implied probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 reflects trader assessment that the post-war power structure has consolidated under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and leadership decapitation, the IRGC has expanded de facto control over security and economic institutions, sidelining civilian figures and suppressing residual protest activity from earlier in the year. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and military rebuilding efforts, supported by external actors, have prioritized internal cohesion over factional challenges. With no verified coup plots or elite defections reported in recent weeks, traders view the compressed timeline as insufficient for organized internal action capable of altering regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,126,262Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The current 91% implied probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 reflects trader assessment that the post-war power structure has consolidated under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and leadership decapitation, the IRGC has expanded de facto control over security and economic institutions, sidelining civilian figures and suppressing residual protest activity from earlier in the year. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and military rebuilding efforts, supported by external actors, have prioritized internal cohesion over factional challenges. With no verified coup plots or elite defections reported in recent weeks, traders view the compressed timeline as insufficient for organized internal action capable of altering regime continuity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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