Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to a minimum temperature near 22°C for Chengdu on September 1, consistent with early-September climatology in the city’s humid subtropical regime where nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by high humidity and residual monsoon moisture. The near-even market split between sub-19°C and 29°C+ outcomes reflects trader focus on residual forecast uncertainty around cloud cover, light precipitation timing, and boundary-layer winds that could enhance or suppress overnight cooling by 2–3°C. Historical analogs show lows rarely dip below 19°C or exceed 24°C this early in the month absent strong frontal passages, while current guidance indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring the 21–23°C range. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings expected within 24 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 1?
19°C or below 91%
29°C or higher 59%
20°C 49%
21°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
91%
20°C
49%
21°C
49%
22°C
28%
23°C
33%
24°C
25%
25°C
49%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
8%
29°C or higher
59%
19°C or below 91%
29°C or higher 59%
20°C 49%
21°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
$0 KL.
91%
20°C
$0 KL.
49%
21°C
$0 KL.
49%
22°C
$0 KL.
28%
23°C
$0 KL.
33%
24°C
$0 KL.
25%
25°C
$0 KL.
49%
26°C
$0 KL.
2%
27°C
$0 KL.
8%
28°C
$0 KL.
8%
29°C or higher
$0 KL.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to a minimum temperature near 22°C for Chengdu on September 1, consistent with early-September climatology in the city’s humid subtropical regime where nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by high humidity and residual monsoon moisture. The near-even market split between sub-19°C and 29°C+ outcomes reflects trader focus on residual forecast uncertainty around cloud cover, light precipitation timing, and boundary-layer winds that could enhance or suppress overnight cooling by 2–3°C. Historical analogs show lows rarely dip below 19°C or exceed 24°C this early in the month absent strong frontal passages, while current guidance indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring the 21–23°C range. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings expected within 24 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to a minimum temperature near 22°C for Chengdu on September 1, consistent with early-September climatology in the city’s humid subtropical regime where nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by high humidity and residual monsoon moisture. The near-even market split between sub-19°C and 29°C+ outcomes reflects trader focus on residual forecast uncertainty around cloud cover, light precipitation timing, and boundary-layer winds that could enhance or suppress overnight cooling by 2–3°C. Historical analogs show lows rarely dip below 19°C or exceed 24°C this early in the month absent strong frontal passages, while current guidance indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring the 21–23°C range. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings expected within 24 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to a minimum temperature near 22°C for Chengdu on September 1, consistent with early-September climatology in the city’s humid subtropical regime where nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by high humidity and residual monsoon moisture. The near-even market split between sub-19°C and 29°C+ outcomes reflects trader focus on residual forecast uncertainty around cloud cover, light precipitation timing, and boundary-layer winds that could enhance or suppress overnight cooling by 2–3°C. Historical analogs show lows rarely dip below 19°C or exceed 24°C this early in the month absent strong frontal passages, while current guidance indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring the 21–23°C range. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings expected within 24 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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