Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London on June 13 points to a minimum temperature near 13–14 °C, consistent with the tightly bunched market probabilities around those levels. A westerly flow and modest Atlantic influence are expected to limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while variable cloud cover and light winds moderate the overnight low. Short-range model spread remains limited at this lead time, though small differences in frontal timing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact minimum by 1 °C. Historical June climatology for the city centers on lows near 12 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average. Traders appear to price the narrow uncertainty band between 12 °C and 15 °C accordingly, with lower-probability tails reflecting the risk of clearer skies or stronger advection.