Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS shows Moscow overnight lows on September 16 likely ranging 7–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds, consistent with the seasonal average low near 8 °C. This places the expected minimum squarely in the middle of the distribution, yet market-implied odds remain nearly even between a reading of 1 °C or below versus 11 °C or higher. The split reflects lingering model spread in the precise timing of the coldest hour and potential for modest forecast revisions as the short-range period arrives. Historical extremes on the date extend from 1 °C to 27 °C, underscoring how even small steering or radiative cooling differences can shift the overnight minimum across resolution thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Moscow on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 16?
1°C or below 94%
11°C or higher 93%
2°C 40%
3°C 40%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
1°C or below
94%
2°C
40%
3°C
40%
4°C
40%
5°C
40%
6°C
25%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C or higher
93%
1°C or below 94%
11°C or higher 93%
2°C 40%
3°C 40%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
1°C or below
$0 KL.
94%
2°C
$0 KL.
40%
3°C
$0 KL.
40%
4°C
$0 KL.
40%
5°C
$0 KL.
40%
6°C
$0 KL.
25%
7°C
$0 KL.
40%
8°C
$0 KL.
40%
9°C
$0 KL.
40%
10°C
$0 KL.
40%
11°C or higher
$0 KL.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS shows Moscow overnight lows on September 16 likely ranging 7–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds, consistent with the seasonal average low near 8 °C. This places the expected minimum squarely in the middle of the distribution, yet market-implied odds remain nearly even between a reading of 1 °C or below versus 11 °C or higher. The split reflects lingering model spread in the precise timing of the coldest hour and potential for modest forecast revisions as the short-range period arrives. Historical extremes on the date extend from 1 °C to 27 °C, underscoring how even small steering or radiative cooling differences can shift the overnight minimum across resolution thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS shows Moscow overnight lows on September 16 likely ranging 7–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds, consistent with the seasonal average low near 8 °C. This places the expected minimum squarely in the middle of the distribution, yet market-implied odds remain nearly even between a reading of 1 °C or below versus 11 °C or higher. The split reflects lingering model spread in the precise timing of the coldest hour and potential for modest forecast revisions as the short-range period arrives. Historical extremes on the date extend from 1 °C to 27 °C, underscoring how even small steering or radiative cooling differences can shift the overnight minimum across resolution thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS shows Moscow overnight lows on September 16 likely ranging 7–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds, consistent with the seasonal average low near 8 °C. This places the expected minimum squarely in the middle of the distribution, yet market-implied odds remain nearly even between a reading of 1 °C or below versus 11 °C or higher. The split reflects lingering model spread in the precise timing of the coldest hour and potential for modest forecast revisions as the short-range period arrives. Historical extremes on the date extend from 1 °C to 27 °C, underscoring how even small steering or radiative cooling differences can shift the overnight minimum across resolution thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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