Recent forecast model consensus points to Moscow's minimum temperature on September 14 settling near 9–10°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, consistent with seasonal norms. Stable high pressure and minimal cold-air advection limit sharp cooling, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty in overnight radiative losses. Traders assign nearly equal weight to sub-5°C extremes versus 15°C+ readings because small shifts in cloud thickness, wind speed, or airmass trajectory could push the minimum several degrees either way; clearer conditions would enhance cooling toward the lower bins, whereas increased cloudiness or mild advection would favor milder outcomes. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus official Hydromet Center guidance tomorrow morning represent the next key data points.