Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
9°C or below 90%
19°C or higher 59%
10°C 49%
14°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
90%
10°C
49%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
49%
15°C
42%
16°C
2%
17°C
44%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
59%
9°C or below 90%
19°C or higher 59%
10°C 49%
14°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
$0 KL.
90%
10°C
$0 KL.
49%
11°C
$0 KL.
27%
12°C
$0 KL.
27%
13°C
$0 KL.
27%
14°C
$0 KL.
49%
15°C
$0 KL.
42%
16°C
$0 KL.
2%
17°C
$0 KL.
44%
18°C
$0 KL.
8%
19°C or higher
$0 KL.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 12–14 °C for Munich on September 1, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 12.3 °C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This consensus supports elevated market-implied odds for bins around 11–13 °C while leaving room for modest overnight cooling if radiational losses strengthen under clearer skies. The 44 % probability assigned to 9 °C or below reflects residual ensemble spread and the possibility of a sharper nocturnal drop, whereas the 29.5 % on 19 °C or higher captures the low but non-zero chance of warmer advection or delayed cloud cover. With resolution imminent, the next 24–48 hours of updated model runs and DWD observations will be decisive for final positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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