Current ensemble forecasts from regional models point to overnight lows of 25–27°C in Shenzhen on August 25 amid widespread thunderstorms and heavy rain associated with the East Asian monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and evaporative cooling from convection limit radiative losses at night while suppressing daytime maxima, keeping the diurnal range narrow. Historical August climatology shows typical minima near 27°C, but recent model runs incorporating stronger moisture influx have nudged expectations slightly lower. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 25–28°C because small differences in precipitation timing or wind patterns can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies and refined high-resolution runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely narrow remaining uncertainty.