Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on September 1 likely ranging 15–17°C under partly cloudy skies with westerly winds of 5–10 m/s, supporting market-implied probabilities clustered around 15–16°C while elevating the 12°C-or-below outcome amid model spread. Primary drivers include radiative cooling under clearing skies after daytime highs near 21–24°C, limited cloud cover allowing greater heat loss, and modest advection of cooler maritime air from the west. Differentiating the tightly matched 12–16°C bands hinges on precise forecast timing of any weak frontal passage or wind shift, as even 1–2 m/s changes in nocturnal mixing or dew-point depression can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical early-September climatology centers near 13–15°C lows, providing context for current trader emphasis on near-term model consensus and upcoming updates.