Missouri's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+19 Partisan Voting Index and history of GOP margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, opened after longtime incumbent Rep. Sam Graves announced his retirement in late March 2026, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% implied probability due to the district's rural northern Missouri base where Donald Trump carried 61.5% in 2024 and Democrats field a low-fundraising primary trio led by Josh Smead. Candidate filings closed March 31 with six Republicans vying in the August 4 open primary, including Graves-endorsed radio host Chris Stigall and Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett, amid early Trump loyalty clashes but no subsequent polling or shifts. Absent a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, national Democratic wave, or late recruit, fundamentals lock in Republican victory on November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$28,012 KL.
$28,012 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$28,012 KL.
$28,012 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$22,456 KL.
92%
Democratic Party
$5,555 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+19 Partisan Voting Index and history of GOP margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, opened after longtime incumbent Rep. Sam Graves announced his retirement in late March 2026, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% implied probability due to the district's rural northern Missouri base where Donald Trump carried 61.5% in 2024 and Democrats field a low-fundraising primary trio led by Josh Smead. Candidate filings closed March 31 with six Republicans vying in the August 4 open primary, including Graves-endorsed radio host Chris Stigall and Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett, amid early Trump loyalty clashes but no subsequent polling or shifts. Absent a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, national Democratic wave, or late recruit, fundamentals lock in Republican victory on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28,012Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+19 Partisan Voting Index and history of GOP margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, opened after longtime incumbent Rep. Sam Graves announced his retirement in late March 2026, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% implied probability due to the district's rural northern Missouri base where Donald Trump carried 61.5% in 2024 and Democrats field a low-fundraising primary trio led by Josh Smead. Candidate filings closed March 31 with six Republicans vying in the August 4 open primary, including Graves-endorsed radio host Chris Stigall and Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett, amid early Trump loyalty clashes but no subsequent polling or shifts. Absent a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, national Democratic wave, or late recruit, fundamentals lock in Republican victory on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$28,012Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+19 Partisan Voting Index and history of GOP margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, opened after longtime incumbent Rep. Sam Graves announced his retirement in late March 2026, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 91.5% implied probability due to the district's rural northern Missouri base where Donald Trump carried 61.5% in 2024 and Democrats field a low-fundraising primary trio led by Josh Smead. Candidate filings closed March 31 with six Republicans vying in the August 4 open primary, including Graves-endorsed radio host Chris Stigall and Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett, amid early Trump loyalty clashes but no subsequent polling or shifts. Absent a scandal-plagued GOP nominee, national Democratic wave, or late recruit, fundamentals lock in Republican victory on November 3.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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