**Recent political developments in Turkey center on extending President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s eligibility for a potential third term in the scheduled 2028 presidential and parliamentary elections, rather than pursuing a constitutional referendum in 2026.** Senior figures, including chief presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek, have publicly outlined a path relying on Article 116 of the constitution. This provision allows parliament (with a 360-vote majority) to call early elections during a president’s second term, enabling an additional candidacy without amending the constitution or holding a referendum. AKP and MHP allies currently hold around 326 seats, falling short of the threshold and requiring cross-party support. Officials have signaled the next vote will occur around April 2028, framing it as Erdoğan’s final term, while downplaying immediate early-election calls. Separate discussions of a new constitution point to the subsequent parliamentary term (29th TBMM), with Uçum noting that any such text—even if passed by 400+ votes—would still face a referendum requirement. No official announcements, legislative calendars, or parliamentary actions in 2026 indicate plans to initiate or schedule a constitutional referendum this year. These factors align with the trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% probability for “No,” as the ruling alliance’s focus remains on procedural workarounds for the 2028 cycle rather than a referendum process.