Recent labor market strength and persistent inflation pressures have positioned the overheating scenario as the leading outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. First-quarter 2026 employment data showed unemployment holding below 5 percent alongside solid job gains, while core CPI readings remained near or above 3.5 percent, supporting trader consensus for continued growth without rapid disinflation. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate adjustments, reflected in recent communications, has reinforced this view by tempering expectations for aggressive easing that could ease price pressures. In comparison, soft-landing odds stand at 24.5 percent as markets weigh the balance between resilient consumer spending and potential policy shifts. Upcoming releases on GDP growth and employment figures will serve as key catalysts for any reassessment of these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSoft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
42%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
16%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 KL.
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$439 KL.
42%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$580 KL.
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 KL.
16%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent labor market strength and persistent inflation pressures have positioned the overheating scenario as the leading outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. First-quarter 2026 employment data showed unemployment holding below 5 percent alongside solid job gains, while core CPI readings remained near or above 3.5 percent, supporting trader consensus for continued growth without rapid disinflation. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate adjustments, reflected in recent communications, has reinforced this view by tempering expectations for aggressive easing that could ease price pressures. In comparison, soft-landing odds stand at 24.5 percent as markets weigh the balance between resilient consumer spending and potential policy shifts. Upcoming releases on GDP growth and employment figures will serve as key catalysts for any reassessment of these probabilities.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Thị trường mở: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,400Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent labor market strength and persistent inflation pressures have positioned the overheating scenario as the leading outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. First-quarter 2026 employment data showed unemployment holding below 5 percent alongside solid job gains, while core CPI readings remained near or above 3.5 percent, supporting trader consensus for continued growth without rapid disinflation. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate adjustments, reflected in recent communications, has reinforced this view by tempering expectations for aggressive easing that could ease price pressures. In comparison, soft-landing odds stand at 24.5 percent as markets weigh the balance between resilient consumer spending and potential policy shifts. Upcoming releases on GDP growth and employment figures will serve as key catalysts for any reassessment of these probabilities.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Khối lượng
$3,400Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market strength and persistent inflation pressures have positioned the overheating scenario as the leading outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. First-quarter 2026 employment data showed unemployment holding below 5 percent alongside solid job gains, while core CPI readings remained near or above 3.5 percent, supporting trader consensus for continued growth without rapid disinflation. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate adjustments, reflected in recent communications, has reinforced this view by tempering expectations for aggressive easing that could ease price pressures. In comparison, soft-landing odds stand at 24.5 percent as markets weigh the balance between resilient consumer spending and potential policy shifts. Upcoming releases on GDP growth and employment figures will serve as key catalysts for any reassessment of these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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