Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, bolstered by her prior incumbency, Navy veteran credentials, January 6 committee service, and superior fundraising that outpaced the Republican incumbent as of early February. Recent April developments, including key endorsements and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placement in its Red-to-Blue program, have solidified her frontrunner status in this swing district race, while challengers like James Osyf (5.5%), Matt Strickler (4.2%), Patrick Mosolf (3.0%), and Burk Stringfellow (3.0%) lag due to limited name recognition and institutional support. Ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, no polls exist, but market pricing reflects Luria's path-to-victory advantages in a crowded field.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtVA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Elaine Luria 87%
Matt Strickler 7.7%
James Osyf 4.7%
Burk Stringfellow 3.6%
Elaine Luria
87%
Matt Strickler
8%
James Osyf
5%
Burk Stringfellow
4%
Patrick Mosolf
3%
Nila Devanath
1%
Nicolaus Sleister
<1%
Elaine Luria 87%
Matt Strickler 7.7%
James Osyf 4.7%
Burk Stringfellow 3.6%
Elaine Luria
87%
Matt Strickler
8%
James Osyf
5%
Burk Stringfellow
4%
Patrick Mosolf
3%
Nila Devanath
1%
Nicolaus Sleister
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, bolstered by her prior incumbency, Navy veteran credentials, January 6 committee service, and superior fundraising that outpaced the Republican incumbent as of early February. Recent April developments, including key endorsements and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placement in its Red-to-Blue program, have solidified her frontrunner status in this swing district race, while challengers like James Osyf (5.5%), Matt Strickler (4.2%), Patrick Mosolf (3.0%), and Burk Stringfellow (3.0%) lag due to limited name recognition and institutional support. Ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, no polls exist, but market pricing reflects Luria's path-to-victory advantages in a crowded field.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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