**Incumbent Mark Sager holds a clear lead in trader consensus for the West Vancouver mayoral race ahead of the October 17 vote.** His long record of local service, including prior terms as mayor in the 1990s and re-election in 2022, combined with recent accomplishments such as waterfront park acquisitions, seniors’ housing approvals, and restrained tax increases, underpins his position. Main challenger Kirk LaPointe, a former journalist emphasizing fiscal discipline, transparency, and housing options, trails notably. Late-campaign debates on business revitalization, transportation, and growth management, plus scrutiny of Sager’s role in a collapsed Horseshoe Bay condo transaction, have not shifted the market’s implied probabilities. Other candidates including Councillor Sharon Thompson and lawyer Joe Spears register minimal trader interest. The pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing incumbency strength and limited momentum for change in this municipal contest.