Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 86%
Google 8.8%
Meta 5.1%
OpenAI 3.0%
$23,291 KL.
$23,291 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
9%
Meta
5%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 8.8%
Meta 5.1%
OpenAI 3.0%
$23,291 KL.
$23,291 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$13,592 KL.
86%
$723 KL.
9%
Meta
$561 KL.
5%
OpenAI
$935 KL.
3%
Moonshot
$594 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$502 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$493 KL.
1%
Baidu
$357 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$429 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$456 KL.
1%
Thinky
$431 KL.
1%
Meituan
$413 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$427 KL.
1%
Tencent
$413 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$411 KL.
1%
StepFun
$414 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$359 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$426 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$534 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$419 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$404 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,291Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$23,291Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and coding/reasoning composites with scores around 84–96, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google’s latest Gemini variants. Multiple Claude 5-family models occupy the top six spots across benchmarks for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s 85.5% implied probability. The company also reports Claude now leads 26% of its internal AI R&D, underscoring demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims. With no major rival releases scheduled before October 31 and typical frontier-model iteration cycles spanning months, the current edge appears durable, though last-minute benchmark shifts or surprise updates could still alter positioning in this competitive landscape.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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