Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$628,666 KL.
$628,666 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
90%
7%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$628,666 KL.
$628,666 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$59,056 KL.
90%
$68,218 KL.
7%
OpenAI
$37,845 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$74,151 KL.
<1%
Meta
$41,792 KL.
<1%
xAI
$56,640 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,960 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$628,666Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$628,666Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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