Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
32%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,647 KL.
61%
OpenAI
$1,085 KL.
32%
DeepSeek
$177 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$235 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$217 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$240 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$224 KL.
1%
Mistral
$245 KL.
1%
Meituan
$177 KL.
1%
StepFun
$187 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$187 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$175 KL.
1%
Amazon
$256 KL.
1%
Meta
$224 KL.
1%
$153 KL.
1%
Baidu
$236 KL.
1%
Tencent
$235 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$185 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$207 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$230 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$128 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,649Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Khối lượng
$9,649Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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