The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election produced final results showing the AfD at 38.2 percent for 32 of 71 seats, well short of the 36-seat absolute majority threshold. Other parties clearing the 5 percent hurdle took the remainder, with the SPD on 29 seats, the Left and Greens on five each. Traders assign near-certain probability to a No outcome because these seat totals leave no realistic path to a majority under the state's proportional system, reinforced by the consistent refusal of other parties to form coalitions with the AfD. Late-stage developments such as official recounts, certification disputes, or court challenges to seat allocation remain the only conceivable variables that could shift the result before formal resolution.