Recent polling for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote shows a fragmented field in which leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact holds roughly 35–44 percent support while right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trail with combined totals below 45 percent and additional centrist and minor-party candidates split the remainder. With no frontrunner approaching the 50 percent threshold required for outright victory and only days remaining before ballots are cast, traders view a first-round majority as improbable. The split conservative vote and absence of late consolidation among opposition blocs further reduce the likelihood that any single candidate can consolidate enough support in the final stretch to avoid a June 21 runoff.