U.S.-Colombia security cooperation has expanded rapidly under President Abelardo De La Espriella, inaugurated in August 2026, with the new administration aligning closely with U.S. counter-narcotics priorities through initiatives such as Plan Patriota 2.0 and the Shield of the Americas coalition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent visit highlighted joint planning for intelligence sharing, equipment support, possible joint operations against designated groups like the ELN, and discussions of U.S. or combined military facilities, all conditioned on Colombian consent and legal frameworks rather than unilateral action. Earlier 2026 tensions under the prior government have given way to $1 billion in pledged U.S. security assistance and bilateral agreements on minerals and nuclear cooperation. Traders assign a 97.7 percent probability to no invasion because these developments reflect partnership with a cooperative government, not adversarial dynamics that historically precede military intervention. A major rupture in bilateral ties or unforeseen escalation could still alter the outlook before year-end.