The prospect of Democratic gains in the 2026 midterm elections stands as the main factor behind traders assigning a 64 percent implied probability that the House will impeach President Trump before January 2029. With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the current Congress, a shift in control would enable Democrats to advance articles of impeachment through a simple majority vote. Historical midterm patterns, combined with polling trends on congressional preferences and Trump’s own public statements tying Republican success to avoiding such proceedings, have reinforced this trader consensus. Resolution would require only House passage, not Senate conviction, leaving room for shifts if midterm outcomes differ from current expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$62,328 KL.
$62,328 KL.
Jan 20, 2029
$62,328 KL.
$62,328 KL.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.The prospect of Democratic gains in the 2026 midterm elections stands as the main factor behind traders assigning a 64 percent implied probability that the House will impeach President Trump before January 2029. With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the current Congress, a shift in control would enable Democrats to advance articles of impeachment through a simple majority vote. Historical midterm patterns, combined with polling trends on congressional preferences and Trump’s own public statements tying Republican success to avoiding such proceedings, have reinforced this trader consensus. Resolution would require only House passage, not Senate conviction, leaving room for shifts if midterm outcomes differ from current expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$62,328Ngày kết thúc
Jan 20, 2029Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.The prospect of Democratic gains in the 2026 midterm elections stands as the main factor behind traders assigning a 64 percent implied probability that the House will impeach President Trump before January 2029. With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the current Congress, a shift in control would enable Democrats to advance articles of impeachment through a simple majority vote. Historical midterm patterns, combined with polling trends on congressional preferences and Trump’s own public statements tying Republican success to avoiding such proceedings, have reinforced this trader consensus. Resolution would require only House passage, not Senate conviction, leaving room for shifts if midterm outcomes differ from current expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Khối lượng
$62,328Ngày kết thúc
Jan 20, 2029Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The prospect of Democratic gains in the 2026 midterm elections stands as the main factor behind traders assigning a 64 percent implied probability that the House will impeach President Trump before January 2029. With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the current Congress, a shift in control would enable Democrats to advance articles of impeachment through a simple majority vote. Historical midterm patterns, combined with polling trends on congressional preferences and Trump’s own public statements tying Republican success to avoiding such proceedings, have reinforced this trader consensus. Resolution would require only House passage, not Senate conviction, leaving room for shifts if midterm outcomes differ from current expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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