Democratic control of the House following the November 2026 midterm elections stands as the central factor behind the 67.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will face impeachment before his term concludes in January 2029. A House majority allows articles of impeachment to advance on a simple majority vote, shifting the procedural landscape after Democrats secured the chamber. Traders price in the potential for oversight hearings and investigations into administration actions, family business dealings, and policy decisions that could generate momentum for formal proceedings once the new Congress convenes in January 2027. At the same time, Democratic leaders have emphasized legislative priorities such as affordability over immediate impeachment, while Senate conviction remains a high bar requiring a two-thirds majority that appears unlikely under current projections. This balance of opportunity and political caution shapes the current market consensus.